epidemiological modeling

All Hands on Deck: The US Response to West Africa’s Ebola Crisis, 2014-2015

Author
Jennifer Widner
Focus Area(s)
Country of Reform
Abstract

In 2014, an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea shined a harsh spotlight on global capacity to deal effectively with a fast-moving epidemic that crossed international borders.  By the end of July, the outbreak had started to overwhelm health care systems in all three affected countries. In Liberia, health centers began to close, and President Ellen Sirleaf appealed for help from the United States. President Barack Obama tasked USAID’s Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) to lead an interagency response. From early August 2014 to January 2016, an OFDA Disaster Assistance Response Team, or DART, deployed to Liberia to help coordinate efforts to stop the spread of infection. The DART was the first to involve a large-scale partnership with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to combat an infectious disease outbreak. Although the deployment, which scaled up earlier assistance, took place five months after the first reported cases and required extensive adaptation of standard practices, it succeeded in helping bring the epidemic under control: the total number of people infected—28,616—was well below the potential levels predicted by the CDC’s models. This US–focused case study highlights the challenges of making an interagency process work in the context of an infectious disease outbreak in areas where health systems are weak.

Jennifer Widner drafted this case study based on interviews from August 2016 to August 2017. The case is part of a series about the Liberian response to the 2014 Ebola outbreak, available through the Innovations for Successful Societies website. Case published June 2018. IBM’s Center for The Business of Government helped finance this case study.

Responding to Global Health Crises: Lessons from the U.S. Response to the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Outbreak

Author
Jennifer Widner
Focus Area(s)
Country of Reform
Abstract

The report “Responding to Global Health Crises: Lessons from the U.S. Response to the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Outbreak” is a version of the “All Hands on Deck” case produced in partnership with the IBM Center for The Business of Government. 

The DART was the first to involve a large-scale partnership with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to combat an infectious disease outbreak. Although the deployment, which scaled up earlier assistance, took place five months after the first reported cases and required extensive adaptation of standard practices, it succeeded in helping bring the epidemic under control: the total number of people infected—28,616—was well below the potential levels predicted by the CDC’s models. This U.S.—focused case study highlights the challenges of making an interagency process work in the context of an infectious disease outbreak in areas where health systems are weak.

 

For more information on the IBM Center for The Business of Government, please visit: www.businessofgovernment.org

 

Chasing an Epidemic: Coordinating Liberia’s Response to Ebola, 2014–2015

Author
Leon Schreiber
Focus Area(s)
Country of Reform
Abstract

In mid 2014, health-care services in Liberia were being overwhelmed by the largest-ever outbreak of Ebola virus disease. Transmitted through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person, the disease was spreading at a rate of 80 new cases per week by the end of July, killing up to 70% of the people it infected. The country’s fragile health-care system, damaged by a 14-year civil war, could not respond to all of the demands it faced. The rate of new infections rose, and schools and health facilities closed. Collaborating with international partners and five months into the epidemic, the Liberian government created a dedicated Incident Management System (IMS) to coordinate all elements of the country’s fight against the disease. The IMS team created a clear decision-making framework, provided responders with adequate infrastructure and technical support, and set up a coherent procedure for communicating with a frightened and anxious public. At the end of the outbreak, the question was whether Liberia’s approach had provided a model for managing responses to infectious disease outbreaks in other, similar settings or whether the approach had left room for making the system work better.

Leon Schreiber drafted this case study in consultation with Jennifer Widner of Princeton University based on interviews conducted in Monrovia, Liberia and London in November and December 2015.

Princeton University’s Grand Challenge supported the research and development of this case study, which is part of a series on public management challenges in the West African Ebola Outbreak response.

 

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (poster infographic)

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (page version)

Offering a Lifeline: Delivering Critical Supplies to Ebola-Affected Communities in Liberia, 2014-2015

Author
David Paterson and Jennifer Widner
Focus Area(s)
Country of Reform
Abstract

When an outbreak of Ebola virus disease began to spill over national borders in West Africa in 2014, halting the epidemic depended as much on logistics as on addressing the medical challenge the virus posed. As the rate of infection in Liberia rose in June and July, J. Dorbor Jallah of the government’s Incident Management System knew that without chlorine, protective gear, and other critical items, it would be impossible for doctors and nurses to work safely. But Jallah faced obstacles at every level of the supply chain. Uncertain estimates of need, competing product standards, and limited vendor partnerships initially hampered procurement. Cargo volume strained capacity at ports of entry, and warehouse space was inadequate—or nonexistent. The country’s limited road network hampered the transport of materials to rural areas during the rainy season. At clinics, safe disposal of contaminated items presented additional difficulties. And to make matters worse, responding organizations all had different policies and approaches. After initial disarray, the Liberian government, international organizations, nonprofit groups, and private companies began cooperating to simulate some of the features of a centralized and integrated supply chain. The volume, speed, and responsiveness of delivery increased across Liberia—just as the epidemic began to wane. The experience triggered a search for innovations that could address similar constraints more effectively during any future infectious-disease outbreak whether in Liberia or elsewhere. 

David Paterson, Jennifer Widner, and staff drafted this case study based on interviews conducted in Liberia and other countries from 2015 to August 2016.

Pfizer Inc. supported the research and development of this case, which is part of a series on public management challenges in the West African Ebola outbreak response.

 

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (poster infographic)

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (page version)

"Everybody’s Business": Mobilizing Citizens During Liberia’s Ebola Outbreak, 2014–2015

Author
Leon Schreiber
Focus Area(s)
Country of Reform
Abstract

When Ebola crossed into Liberia in early 2014, the West African nation had few defenses. Because no effective vaccine was available at the time, the only way to limit the spread of the viral disease was to restrict physical contact with those who were infected, what they had touched, and the bodies of victims. But that advice countermanded the most basic of human instincts: to comfort a sick child, hug an ill relative, or shake hands with a friend or coworker. The challenge of changing human behavior was especially difficult because Liberia was still recovering from a long civil war. Public distrust of government, persistent rumors, linguistic diversity, and limited communication capacity hobbled efforts to send a clear public message and win citizens’ cooperation. After top-down tactics—including forcible quarantines of whole communities—failed to stem the rate of infection, a small team of Liberian officials, supported by international partners, realized that effective steps to contain the disease would require active participation by citizens themselves. The officials engaged Liberians in developing an information campaign and recruited people throughout the country to visit their neighbors door-to-door, explain the steps people could take to protect themselves, and respond to questions. Although the complexity of the Ebola response and the volatility of the outbreak had made it hard to measure the success of the social mobilization effort in reducing new infections, an analysis of timing together with anecdotal evidence strongly suggested that the effort helped save lives and contributed to the disease’s decline during the final months of 2014.

Leon Schreiber drafted this case study based on interviews conducted in Monrovia, Liberia in April and May 2016, with guidance and additional information provided by Jennifer Widner and Beatrice Godefroy.

Princeton University’s Health Grand Challenge supported the research and development of this case study, which is part of a series on public management challenges in the West African Ebola Outbreak response.

 

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (poster infographic)

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (page version)

 

 

Hans Rosling

Ref Batch
C
Focus Area(s)
Ref Batch Number
4
Country of Reform
Interviewers
Leon Schreiber
Name
Hans Rosling
Interviewee's Position
Co-Founder,
Interviewee's Organization
Gapminder Foundation
Language
English
Nationality of Interviewee
Swedish
Country
Date of Interview
Reform Profile
No
Abstract

In this 2016 interview Hans Rosling reflects on his role in the response to the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa. Rosling traveled to Monrovia, Liberia in October 2014 to assist the Incident Management System (IMS) with modeling the spread of the disease. He describes Liberia’s case monitoring systems and the challenges of coordinating data collection and epidemiological surveillance. Rosling discusses how domestic and internationals responders coalesced into an organized force for disease control and treatment. When the large numbers of cases in West Africa crashed a CDC-provided database called Epi-Info, Rosling switched to a system of Excel spreadsheets. He also introduced daily situation reports to update the response team members about the status of cases across the country and served as a powerful communicator of the story behind the data.

Profile

Hans Rosling was a Swedish physician, academic, statistician, and public speaker. He was Professor of International Health at Karolinska Institutet, where he led the Division of International Health (IHCAR) from 2001 to 2007. In 2005, he co-founded the Gapminder Foundation, which makes development data freely available and easy to analyze and visualize with the goal of promoting sustainable global development. Rosling held presentations around the world, including several TED Talks in which he promoted the use of data to explore development issues. Throughout his career Rosling focused on community-based epidemiology. After studying medicine and public health at Uppsala University (Sweden) and St. John's Medical College (India), he served as a public health officer in post-Independence Mozambique. He then helped Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and  other countries identify and track a rare paralytic disease, which he discovered arose from poorly processed cassava. In the early 1990s, he worked in Cuba to help respond to an epidemic of neuropathy that occurred there. He co-founded Doctors Without Borders Sweden and long-time adviser to WHO and UNICEF.  Rosling supported the response to the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak and traveled to Liberia to assist in October of that year.

 

The Hunt for Ebola: Building a Disease Surveillance System in Liberia, 2014–2015

Author
Leon Schreiber and Jennifer Widner
Focus Area(s)
Country of Reform
Abstract

When the first cases of Ebola virus disease appeared in Liberia at the end of March 2014, a critical first step in preventing an epidemic was to identify those who had contracted the virus. However, Liberia’s disease surveillance capacity remained feeble in the wake of a 14-year civil war that had weakened the health system, and citizens’ distrust of the government sometimes raised risks for public health teams dispatched to carry out that vital surveillance function. In August, as the number of new infections began to escalate, the government and its international partners shifted to a proactive strategy. Rather than wait for families to call for help, they began to engage local leaders and community health workers in hunting the disease. They also developed data management practices to more effectively track and analyze the evolution of the epidemic. By year-end, most of the new Ebola infections involved Liberians who were already under observation. In another important measure of success, the time between patients’ onsets of symptoms and their medical isolations shortened markedly. The ability to hunt down Ebola slowed the spread of the disease and helped bring an end to the epidemic in May 2015.

Leon Schreiber and Jennifer Widner drafted this case study based on interviews conducted in Monrovia, Liberia, in April and May 2016 and with international organizations from June to August 2016. Béatrice Godefroy provided initial guidance.

Princeton University’s Health Grand Challenge supported the research and development of this case study, which is part of a series on public management challenges in the West African Ebola Outbreak response.

 

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (poster infographic)

Timeline: West African Ebola Outbreak (page version)